Potential for Shocks as the Battle for Premier League Survival Heats Up!

The battle for the Premier League title has become a 3-horse race as Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea fight it out but it’s the bottom of the table where an exciting battle for survival is really heating up. With just 13 games to go, the importance of points to the clubs on the brink of relegation intensifies and with it the potential for shock results. Something Premier 10 players need to be aware of. We all recall West Brom’s dramatic escape in 2004/05, bottom at Xmas but shock results such as draws at Old Trafford and White Hart Lane led to their survival. We can all recall the happy Hammers winning at Manchester United on the final day last season to ensure their Premier League status despite playing more like hapless Hammers for most of the season.

So lets look at which of the struggling sides have the capability to shock in the final third of the season. Who looks most likely to go down and who has used the transfer window wisely to get out of their current predicament. Arguably the bottom 10 are potential candidates for the drop, however the current bottom 8 clubs look more likely, from the rock bottom Rams to big spending Boro.

Derby are nailed on favourites for the drop after picking up a mere 9 points from a possible 75 this season. They’ve not won a Premier League match in 4 months, have changed their manager as well as half their team. Paul Jewell is a proven manager but he’s not a miracle worker. He inherited an ageing side that were simply not good enough for the top division, he has used the January transfer window to bring in 8 players, 6 of whom had previously played in the Premier League. The new recruits should enable the Rams to pick up the odd result (mainly draws), but Derby have both the joint worse defensive and scoring records in the division so they’re all but doomed. After all, their top scorer is Kenny Miller with 3 goals and the entire squad have scored just 13 goals. That’s 6 less than Premier League top scorer Cristiano Ronaldo. With all the changes, it’s all a case of too little, too late for the Rams as they remain 13-points adrift from 17th placed Reading. So hope you enjoyed the stay Derby, your time is up!

Fulham also changed management and Roy Hodgson’s side looked doomed until last weekend’s shock win over high-flying Villa. They have the capability to shock a few sides, at least at Craven Cottage. After all, it’s 16 months since they last registered an away win. Roy was also busy in the transfer market and when your side is struggling you use your experience to turn things round and Hodgson’s experience is Scandinavian football. So in came Dane Leon Andreasen, Finn Jari Litmanen and Norwegians Erik Nevland and Brede Hangeland. The Cottagers also brought in American forward Eddie Johnson and Canadian loan full-back Paul Stalteri. That’s a total of £9millions worth of talent brought into save the club from the drop.

The impact of the new boys is hard to judge as few have featured in English football but the added firepower could be all-important. After all, no side apart from Liverpool have drawn as many games as Fulham’s 10 this season. The Cottagers have given themselves a chance but expect them to remain in trouble till the final few weeks.

Alex McLeish was touted as Birmingham’s saviour when appointed manager back in December but 2 wins in 11 games has left them in the drop zone for the first time since August. The Blues strengthened their squad with the signing of forwards James McFadden and Mauro Zarate as well as defender David Murphy. However, if McLeish expects McFadden to shoot his side to safety then he could be in big trouble as the Scot has scored a total of 2 goals in 15 League appearances this season, hardly prolific. Zarate is undoubtedly gifted, but the argentine youngster will find English football very different to the football he’s been playing in Qatar. Current top scorers Olivier Kapo and Cameron Jerome (both 5 goals) have not found the net in 2008 so things are looking bleak at St Andrew’s. The side is relatively young and inexperienced and could crack under pressure in the run-in especially as their home form is so poor with just 1 win in the last 7 games. The Blues are looking good for a quick return to the Championship.
Steve Coppell’s side have endured a serious bout of second season syndrome as their impressive first season in the top flight becomes a distant memory. If any side is destined for the drop on current form, it’s the Royals. The facts speak for themselves, six defeats on the bounce, the joint worst defensive record in the division, no away wins and no serious investment in new recruits.

Reading’s Premier League adventure could be coming to an end and what a way to go, 7 conceded at Portsmouth and 6 at Tottenham. They’ve already conceded 5 more goals than in the whole of their first Premier League campaign. Even their form at the Madejski has begun to deteriorate with 3 straight defeats and no goals scored. Despite a decent squad which is almost identical to last season (minus Steve Sidwell), losing has become a habit and the stars of the last campaign have failed to perform. Clubs at the bottom usually need a spark to turn it around, a new signing, a new manager, unfortunately for the Royals they have neither so expect a hard end to the season for them.
If Sunderland could play all their matches at the Stadium of Light they wouldn’t have a problem. The Black Cats have won their last 3 games in front of their home crowd but have an absolutely appalling away record. In fact it’s the worst in the division, Keane’s team have picked up just 2 points on their travels from 33 available. However, Sunderland have 7 home matches left and also recruited a number of players in January so have a good chance of survival. They have a vociferous vocal crowd and 5 new players including yet another Irishman in Andy Reid. Despite Keane’s inexperience as a manager he is a born fighter and a born winner so expect the Black Cats to escape despite their apparent travel sickness. After all, with so many of Roy’s compatriots as the club, Sunderland should have the luck of the Irish.
Yet another struggler, yet another new manager in the case of Wigan Athletic as Steve Bruce swapped one relegation candidate for another. He has definitely improved the performance of the Latics, picking up 15 points in 11 games. Wigan had just 8 points before her arrived from 14 games so the turnaround has been impressive. Goal scoring will be the problem for Bruce but he did manage to bring in Marlon King from Watford but whether he will be enough to keep them afloat is in question. After all, the Jamaican international has scored once in his last 10 appearances for Watford and Wigan combined. First choice centre-forward Emile Heskey has scored once all season so the Latics will struggle but may pull off the odd shock at the JJB.

Gary Megson’s Bolton side looked doomed after the sale of top scorer Nicolas Anelka but new signings have strengthened another area of the team, the defence. The Trotters haven’t conceded in the last 3 games since Matt Taylor and Gretar Steinsson joined the club. Former Villa centre-half Gary Cahill should tighten things further after an impressive debut in the 2-0 win last weekend at Reading. Goal scoring could be a problem but the return of El-Hadji Diouf from the African Cup of Nations and the return to fitness of Heidar Helguson should be enough to see them safe. Particularly now Kevin Nolan seems to have rediscovered his form in front of goal, the midfielder has now scored 4 goals in his last 10 League appearances after scoring just1 goal in his previous 14 games. So expect Bolton to pull off a few shock wins especially after ending their winless away run last weekend.
None of the relegation threatened sides spent as much as Gareth Southgate in January and all his cash went on one player Afonso Alves. The former Heerenveen forward joined in a £12million deal after a long protracted chase. The Brazilian had a superb goal scoring record in Holland but don’t most forwards? Premier League flops Mateja Kezman and Dirk Kuyt had awesome records when playing for PSV and Feyenoord respectively but failed to perform in England. Luckily Boro may not to rely on their new boy too much as they’ve begun to move away from the relegation pack after going 4 matches unbeaten. They have a sound defence and are now a dangerous outfit from set-pieces with the aerial threat of Huth, Wheater and Mido. Boro have proven they’ve the potential to pull off shock wins including victories over League leaders Arsenal and away at Portsmouth. They should survive relatively comfortably, especially if Alves is the real deal and not another expensive flop.

So those are the contenders for the drop but with the season drawing to a close expect some shock results amongst these sides. After all, once the threat of the drop gets closer, it’s amazing just how much these well paid players suddenly improve. So beware Premier 10 players as there are plenty of twists and turns left in this survival race!

Tags: Birmingham, Bolton, Derby, Fulham, Middlesbrough, Premier League, Reading, relegation, Sunderland, Wigan

This entry was posted on Friday, February 8th, 2008 at 19:34 and is filed under Features, Home Features. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.